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Estimating the Effect of Crime Risk on Property
Values and Time on Market:
We estimate the impact of crime risk associated with a nearby registered
sex offender residence on a home’s selling price and liquidity.
The 1994 passage of the Sexual Offender Act (and 1996 amendments
known as Megan’s Law) required persons convicted of sex crimes register
their domicile and states are required to make the information public.
Although statutes vary, sex offenders’ addresses are publicly available
in all states. Employing a
simultaneous equation model in which a property’s liquidity and selling
price are jointly determined, we find that proximity to sexual
offender’s residence has robust and economically large effects on real
estate transactions. Our results indicate that the presence of a nearby
registered sex offender reduces home values by approximately 8% (about
$13,161 at the mean). Moreover, these same homes take as much as 84%
longer to sell (approximately 92 days) than homes not located near
registered sex offenders.
Additionally, we find increased effects if the sex offender is
designated as “violent” and increased effects on houses with more
bedrooms. We interpret the
latter result to be a proxy for increasing risk aversion among larger
families with more children.
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