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Bennie D. Waller, PhD

HOME VITAE RESEARCH        
         

Estimating the Effect of Crime Risk on Property Values and Time on Market:
Evidence from Megan’s Law in Virginia

We estimate the impact of crime risk associated with a nearby registered sex offender residence on a home’s selling price and liquidity.  The 1994 passage of the Sexual Offender Act (and 1996 amendments known as Megan’s Law) required persons convicted of sex crimes register their domicile and states are required to make the information public. Although statutes vary, sex offenders’ addresses are publicly available in all states.  Employing a simultaneous equation model in which a property’s liquidity and selling price are jointly determined, we find that proximity to sexual offender’s residence has robust and economically large effects on real estate transactions. Our results indicate that the presence of a nearby registered sex offender reduces home values by approximately 8% (about $13,161 at the mean). Moreover, these same homes take as much as 84% longer to sell (approximately 92 days) than homes not located near registered sex offenders.  Additionally, we find increased effects if the sex offender is designated as “violent” and increased effects on houses with more bedrooms.  We interpret the latter result to be a proxy for increasing risk aversion among larger families with more children.